From The Wall Street Journal:
There’s more at the original. But this tells you why the Congress won’t block President Obama’s nuclear arms deal with Iran: too many people see too much money to be made by normalizing trade relations. And even if someone sensible like Scott Walker or Carly Fiorina or Ted Cruz is elected to be our next President, American sanctions won’t be re-imposed, because American businesses will be making money off the deal.
While executives see opportunities, governments remain at loggerheads on other issues
By Rory Jones and Nicolas Parasie | August 31, 2015 5:30 a.m. ET
DUBAI–In the 10 years since RAK Ceramics opened a $40 million tile manufacturing plant in Iran, the United Arab Emirates-based firm has racked up millions of dollars in losses in the Persian country, fired hundreds of employees and all but stopped its kilns from burning.
But then Iran struck a nuclear deal with the U.S. and other foreign powers this summer. Now with sanctions expected to ease, RAK Ceramics is looking to boost output of the kitchen and bathroom tiles it sells in Iran and the wider region. Executives for one of the world’s largest manufacturers of tiles and sanitary ware by capacity are now betting the long wait on Iran is about to pay off.
“We were a patient investor,” says Abdallah Massaad, RAK Ceramics’ chief executive.
RAK Ceramics is one of a handful of Arab-owned firms positioning their businesses to profit from a post-sanctions neighbor, even as frosty political ties between Iran and most of the Gulf Cooperation Council–Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the U.A.E., Oman, Qatar and Kuwait–show few signs of thawing.
The week after the U.A.E. joined Saudi Arabian-led airstrikes in April against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, U.A.E.-owned Etihad Airways launched a daily commercial service to Iran’s capital Tehran. Dubai-owned FlyDubai has launched seven new routes to Iran this year after a bilateral aviation agreement was signed in January between the U.A.E. and Iranian governments.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that with the removal of sanctions Iran’s annual import needs could soar to $200 billion from $80 billion in 2014. The U.A.E. is among those countries best positioned to benefit from the trade flows, analysts at the bank said in a note to clients.
The article doesn’t mention much in the way of American businesses making money on this, but you can count on it: European businesses will, and the Europeans have American business interests as well. And if the Europeans don’t continue with the sanctions, then there’s little use in the United States doing so; that wouldn’t stop Iran from making money, or obtaining anything it wanted in trade, but it would hurt American business interests.
President Obama has gotten his way on this one: he structured the deal in such a fashion that both Houses of Congress would have to override his veto of any law disapproving the deal, something which would require 2/3 supermajorities in both Houses, and in a way which makes the reimposition of sanctions by a subsequent President cost American businesses money.