The “Working Class” is deserting the Democrats

We have said it many times before: the Democrats cannot be both the party of the working man and the party of the nonworking man! From Gallup polls:

Obama Approval Drops Among Working-Class Whites
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, N.J. — President Barack Obama’s job approval rating among white non-college graduates is at 27% so far in 2014, 14 percentage points lower than among white college graduates. This is the largest yearly gap between these two groups since Obama took office. These data underscore the magnitude of the Democratic Party’s problem with working-class whites, among whom Obama lost in the 2012 presidential election, and among whom Democratic House candidates lost in the 2014 U.S. House voting by 30 points.

Obama’s overall job approval rating has dropped throughout the first six years of his administration, and this downward trajectory is seen both among white Americans who are college graduates and those who are not. But the gap between his approval ratings among college-educated and non-college-educated whites has grown. It was six points in 2009, when Obama had the overall highest ratings of his administration, then expanded to 10 points in 2010 and to 12 points in 2013. The gap between these two groups is at its highest yet, at 14 points so far this year.

Whites in general constitute a political challenge for Democrats and the president given their Republican orientation, as evidenced by Obama’s job approval ratings so far this year of 84% among blacks, 64% among Asians, 53% among Hispanics and 32% among whites. About two-thirds of adult whites have not graduated from college, making working-class whites a particularly important group politically because of its sheer size.

Gender and Age

Democrats and the president do better among white women than among white men, and this gender gap is evident among those who are college graduates and those who are not. Obama’s approval rating ranges from a high of 45% among white female college graduates to a low of 25% among white male non-college graduates. The eight-point gender gap among white college graduates is twice that among white non-college graduates.

There’s more at the linked original, but I want to include this second graphic from Gallup polling, because it demonstrates the falsity of the cries of the left, that white disapproval of President Obama is due to racism. Note that, since the polling began, the President’s job approval ratings have dropped for all groups, in a fairly consistent manner. White female college graduates initially gave the President 59% job approval rating; they were, in effect, giving him a fair chance to see how well he would do the job. Working class white women1 initially gave the President a 51% job approval rating; their approval rates have had the greatest percentage decline of all. “Working class” white men were the least supportive of the President initially, but even they were giving the President an opportunity to win them over; the President’s race didn’t change in that time, but the success of his policies certainly did . . . for the worse.

The problem for the President specifically, and for Democrats in general, is simple: their policies have not helped the working class, and have actually been harmful. Despite the wholly misleading unemployment statistic, there are fewer full-time jobs than before the recession began. The Obama Administration’s and the Democrats’ moves to normalize the status of illegal immigrants, opposition to which the left see as racist, simply increases the supply of non-college educated workers vis a vis the demand for such workers, and working class people — white or not — can see that.

And, of course, there is the very obvious: the number of people on one form of welfare or another has increased dramatically under President Obama.  Working class people realize, seemingly better than the more highly educated, that all of those welfare benefits have to be paid for, somehow, and the only way to do that is to tax away the earnings of people who do work, to provide those benefits for those who do not.

Kentucky Senate race, by county, 1984

Kentucky Senate race, 1990, by county

Kentucky Senate race, 1996, by county

Kentucky Senate race, 2002, by county

Kentucky Senate race, 2008, by county

Kentucky Senate race, 2014, by county

I’d note here the 2014 Senate race in Kentucky, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was challenged by Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Other than in 2002, when Mr McConnell faced only token opposition in Lois Combs Weinberg2, the Democratic candidate normally carried a respectable number of counties. Even in the token opposition race, Senator McConnell never carried, not even once, Pike3 or Floyd or Knott or Breathitt counties in the eastern coal regions,4 but against the well-financed Secretary Grimes, he did. It was the white working class regions of the Bluegrass State, always solidly Democratic, that Mrs Grimes failed to carry, because the voters there have realized that the policies of the Democrats are harmful to them.

The Democrats have long counted on the endorsements of labor unions,5 and they will still get the support of the union leadership. But the union leadership are highly-paid, professionally secure men, who claim to represent the working class but are no longer truly part of it,6 and don’t really understand the problems of working class America, and the working class in this country has been slowly but surely deserting a party which no longer helps them.
__________________________________

  1. The Gallup article itself pushed the idea that not having been graduated from college makes one “working class,” an idea which is fairly common. Investopedia defines “working class” as “A socioeconomic term used to describe persons in a social class marked by jobs that provide low pay, require limited skill and/or physical labor, and have reduced education requirements.” It continues to state that “Unemployed persons or those supported by a social welfare program are often included in this group,” but The First Street Journal holds that there is a difference between working class and non-working class. Otherdefinitions can be found, but they are fairly unified on the concept that the working class are, primarily, those without higher education, who rely on manual labor to provide an income. Your Editor disagrees: he defines working class as those people who have to work for a living, and takes no distinction based upon the kind of work that they do, because he holds that all (legal) work is honorable and praiseworthy.
  2. Nevertheless, Mrs Weinberg is the daughter of former Governor Bert T Combs.
  3. Pike county is the larger county, the easternmost one in the state. Here is a county map of Kentucky.
  4. These counties have a significant number of unionized coal miners.
  5. In 2012, the United Mine Workers Union decided not to endorse any Presidential candidate. In 2008, the UMW had wholeheartedly endorsed Barack Obama.
  6. The Editor’s personal definition of working class, from footnote #1, notwithstanding.

Thanksgiving dinner at Fort Jackson

Basic Combat Training soldiers, 1st Battalion 61st Infantry Regiment “Roadrunners” at Fort Jackson, South Carolina, having Thanksgiving dinner. Note that the soldiers are carrying their weapons to dinner! Click to enlarge.

It’s a tradition at Fort Jackson: on Thanksgiving, the officers and senior staff don their Army Service Uniforms and serve the Basic Combat Training soldiers dinner. Click to enlarge.

Drill Sergeants serving their soldiers in training. I hope that the soldiers got more than the typical seven minutes to eat! Click to enlarge.

Pumpkin pie and an M-4 for dessert! Click to enlarge.

The First Street Journal wishes Justice Ginsburg a speedy recovery . . .

. . . and we hope that she continues to serve on the Supreme Court until after January 20, 2017!

I will not . . .

. . . go Christmas shopping on Thanksgiving day.

Our Thanksgiving dinner is postponed until Sunday, because that’s the next day that no one in the family has to work. It’s perfectly understandable that my wife has to work today: she’s a registered nurse, and hospitals can’t close down for the holidays. But when I see stores opening up this afternoon just to get an early start on Christmas shopping sales, and requiring their people to work, I know that the only reason they are doing so is because the management believe that they can make more money by doing so.

Well, the only way that retailers can make money by opening on Thanksgiving day is if people actually shop today. I would never try to use the power of government to force stores to remain closed on Thanksgiving, but I can, and do, urge people not to shop today. If people don’t shop on Thanksgiving day, retailers will quickly understand that there’s no profit to be made by opening next Thanksgiving.

Ferguson Open Thread

Supposedly, the grand jury’s decision is in, and the decision may be announced later today. This is an open thread for discussion.

Man of the Year

Kim Quade of the Victory Girls noted:

Time Magazine — in what has to be one of its most perplexing decisions — has announced that the “Ferguson Protestors” are in the running to be named as their annual “Person of the Year.” Considering that last year’s recipient was Pope Francis, I would say that Time’s standards have gone down a notch. Or several.

When I consider some of the people Time has selected before, I’d say that picking His Holiness last year was an upgrade and an aberration, rather than a consistent standard.

  • Adolf Hitler in 1938,
  • Josef Stalin in 1939 and 1942,
  • Mohammed Mossadegh in 1951,
  • Nikita Khrushchev in 1957,
  • Deng Xiaoping in 1978 and 1985,
  • Ayatollah Khoumeini in 1979,
  • Yuri Andropov in 1983,
  • Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987 and 1989,
  • Vladimir Putin in 2007, and, worst of all,
  • Barack Hussein Obama in 2008 and 2012!

Maybe Time can double-down and include the Reverend Al Sharpton by name with the Ferguson protesters.

Rule 5 Blogging: Maybe if Benito Mussolini had these soldiers, his armies wouldn’t have been so thoroughly butt-kicked!

It’s the weekend and time, once again, for THE FIRST STREET JOURNAL’S version of Rule 5 Blogging. Robert Stacey Stacy McCain described Rule 5 as posting photos of pretty women somewhat déshabillé, but, on this site, our Rule 5 Blogging doesn’t put up pictures of Isabella Rossellini in her summer clothes, but women, in full military gear, serving their countries in the armed forces. The terribly sexist authors on this site celebrate strong women, women who can take care of themselves and take care of others, women who have been willing to put their lives on the line in some not-so-friendly places, women who truly do have the “We can do it!” attitude. This week: Italian soldiers!

Note that the plane behind the pilot tells you that she's dangerous!  Click to enlarge.

Note that the plane behind the pilot tells you that she’s dangerous!

Continue reading ‘Rule 5 Blogging: Maybe if Benito Mussolini had these soldiers, his armies wouldn’t have been so thoroughly butt-kicked!’ »

From Around the Blogroll

What would happen if the incoming Congress passed a bill stating that only American citizens and legal permanent residents are eligible for any federal welfare programs, including medical care, and setting up criminal penalties, including serious prison time, for anyone, including social workers, who enabled people ineligible for such benefits due to illegal immigration status to receive benefits, and set up criminal penalties, including serious prison time for CEOs and subordinate corporate workers who enabled illegal immigrants to get jobs?

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

The left have been trying to tell us just what a great, great! job President Obama has been doing, and how underappreciated he is. One of their claims is that he’s pretty much whipped unemployment, with the official unemployment rate being down to 5.8%. From CNN Money:

The New American Dream
Exclusive: America’s part-time economy
By Patrick Gillespie @CNNMoney November 21, 2014: 6:52 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney): The West Coast isn’t a dreamy place for many workers. Millions of Americans are languishing there in part-time jobs with no other options.

In California alone, 1.2 million people are “underemployed.” That equals the entire population of San Francisco and Oakland.

Part-time workers are far more likely to live in poverty. They are paid less than other workers and often don’t receive benefits. It’s a bad sign when states have a high percentage of part-time employees in the labor force, especially those working part-time involuntarily because they can’t get a full-time job.

The worst state: In California, the nation’s largest state economy, 7.1% of the workforce consists of involuntary part-time workers. That’s well above the national average of 4.7% in October.

To look at it another way, California has over half a million more underemployed workers now than in 2007. That’s greater than the population of Sacramento.

Part-time work always increases in a recession, but the alarming sign is that it hasn’t gone down much during America’s recovery.

Eight states, including New York and New Jersey, still have double the number of involuntary part-time jobs since the recession began, according to the Labor Department. And involuntary part-time jobs are actually increasing in places like Florida and Texas.

More at the link.

I’m certain, certain! that the requirement of the wholly misnamed Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act that says businesses employing fifty or more people must provide health insurance for full-time employees, with full-time being defined as thirty or more hours per week, has nothing to do with the increase in part-time employment, and inability of so many part-timers to gain full-time employment.

U-6 Unemployment Rate.  Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Click to enlarge.

U-6 Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Click to enlarge.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines the U-6 unemployment rate as “Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force,” and “Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.”

The recession started after December of 2007 — statistically speaking — and was over at the end of June of 2009. Today, 21 full quarters, 5¼ years after the recession statistically ended, the U-6 unemployment rate is 11.5%, 3.1 percentage points higher than November of 2007, and 2.7 percentage points higher than December of 2007. People have been finding jobs, but they haven’t been finding good jobs, haven’t been finding the work that they really need.

Perhaps this is why The Washington Post reported a poll indicating that 72% of Americans believe that we are still in a recession! The numbers say that we aren’t, but the people can still feel it in their bones. The left can cite an official statistic, but it still falls under the category of lies.

The Double Standard

The rape allegations against comedian Bill Cosby have been all over the news recently, and Mr Cosby has already had shows pulled. The claims are decades old, and beyond any possibility of proof, or disproof, but liberal sites like Think Progress are full of stories which don’t question the allegations. The Lost Kos was no different, and it’s not surprise at all that Amanda Marcotte would be assuming that he is guilty. Even some commenters on a site as sane as Patterico’s Pontifications believe he is probably guilty. Well, guilty or not, his reputation is trashed, ruined, by allegations which can never be proved.

But, I’ll bet that we hear nothing but defenses from the left concerning this story:

Portland gay rights leader arrested in sex case
Terrence Bean, 66, on the ground floor of the Human Rights Campaign
By KOIN 6 News Staff | Published: November 19, 2014, 2:09 pm Updated: November 20, 2014, 5:55 am

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN 6) — A founder of the country’s leading gay rights organization was arrested Wednesday on charges related to an incident with a 15-year-old boy last year.

Portland LGBT activist Terry Bean, 66, poses with U.S. President Barrack Obama. (Flickr/ Terry Bean)

The Portland Police Bureau’s Sex Crimes Unit took Terrence Bean into custody at his home in Southwest Portland following a Lane County Grand Jury indictment.

Bean, 66, was on the ground floor of the Human Rights Campaign, according to terrybeanpolitics.com, and is listed as an HRC board member and Portland’s sole representation in the group’s leadership on hrc.org.

Bean’s lawyer, Kristen Winemiller, said in a statement Wednesday that it is Bean who has been victimized, and “look[s] forward to the opportunity to clear his name.”

“Over the course of several months in 2013-2014 Terry was the victim of an extortion ring led by several men known to law enforcement,” Winemiller said.

Winemiller said the arrest is connected to an ongoing investigation of a case Bean fully cooperated with. Still, sources familiar with the investigation told KOIN 6 News they believe there may be more victims in the case, part of an overarching investigation, and others may face charges.

“No allegations against Terry Bean should be taken at face value,” Winemiller said.

Amid the allegations, dozens of supporters took to social media defending Bean, including celebrated LGBT advocate and benefactor Bill Dickey.

More at the original. But remember the differences: there are allegations that Mr Cosby raped several women, years and years ago, while a Grand Jury in Lane County, in very liberal Oregon, looked at the evidence and actually indicted Mr Bean. He is facing real criminal charges, with real witnesses and real evidence.

My guess is that we’ll hear nothing but crickets chirping from the left over this one.