Presidential Polling: Breaking The 50 Percent Barrier

Gallup has a new poll out from data it collected from October 10 to October 16, showing the 50 percent barrier has been crossed. This is important because when an incumbent has less than 50 percent of the likely voters this late in the stage, that incumbent is in serious danger of being defeated — even if the incumbent has the lead in the polls. Because people who are undecided this late in the game break very heavily toward the challenger. The incumbent has a record, and that record has not convinced the undecided voter. What’s left?

So, when a poll with the clout of Gallup comes out and declares that 51 percent of likely voters have stepped up to the plate and declared they will be voting for Obama and 45 percent will be voting for Romney, leaving only 4 percent undecided, that means something major.

Wait, what? Oh, that’s right. Never mind. The Gallup poll of likely voters shows Romney with 51 percent of the vote, a clear majority, to Obama’s 45 percent to give Romney a 6 point lead. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Perhaps it’s time to put down the dominoes. A storm surge is coming in.

HT Hot Air Headlines
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Originally published on Truth Before Dishonor

11 Comments

  1. The polling groups, otherwise known at first as bimBO campaign workers, tried everything they could to get people who favored Romney to quit. Their trick was to use the 2008 voting breakdown which oversampled Dems by 9pts. That way, Obama was always in favor of the voters. But now that we’re three weeks from the elections, the polling companies are coming into reality so to have the facts say their polling was accurate in the end. Afterall, to them, their poll leader who is being sold as 49-45, can’t end the next week losing 45-49. So, now, the candidates internal polling, more accurate, is seeping into national polls so as to not look like an idiot.

  2. Recent polls have Mitt Romney closing the gap in the Keystone State, being down 50% to 46%; Pennsylvania, once thought to be safe for the President, is back in play.

    But, while the polls are encouraging, and show movement toward Mitt Romney, there’s only one poll that actually counts.

  3. Although I agree Romney’s ahead and quickly opening an even greater gap between himself and the current unwanted occupant in the White House, I wouldn’t rate anything Gallup puts out as even close to credible. After all it was Gallup that provided all those so-called undecided questioners at the debate. Gallup displayed an obvious bias and thus untrustworthy.

    The biggest losers last night were Gallup and Candy Crowley, Obama came off as a petulant jerk, and Romney didn’t handle himself as well as he could have. Now, granted, hindsight is 20/20, but this is the big dance and Romney should have been better prepared for planted questions from phony undecideds and for Gallup, Crowley, and Obama teaming up against him.

    Overall, Romney won the debate, Obama is still in the race but he’s losing ground fast.

  4. When Bill Clinton was running for a second term and found himself behind in the polls with voters losing interest, very similar to Obama’s situation now, Clinton bombed an African aspirin factory and an abandoned terrorist training camp in Afghanistan. It worked and Clinton was reelected.

    Get ready for Obama to unleash an air attack on some symbolic but unoccupied targets in Benghazi.

  5. I hear you, ropelight, and I generally agree that Gallup tends to push strongly Leftward. I also note that Gallup adjusted a few things after being attacked by the Obama campaign and being sued by the Obama Department of Injustice. Further, Gallup’s earlier polls had D+12 samples or thereabouts; completely out of touch with reality.

    But it’s nearing the end of the campaign trail, when the voting will actually take place, and like all the other “trustworthy” polling firms, Gallup needs to make certain its final poll numbers are in line with the actual vote. To this end (having a final, accurate poll), Gallup has to move to the Right with its polling numbers … and has done so.

  6. A lot of wishful thinking and pontificating is going on here, but our Editor has made the only really correct comment about the outcome:

    But, while the polls are encouraging, and show movement toward Mitt Romney, there’s only one poll that actually counts.

    But I disagree with him when he continuously says that President Obama has failed. Ironically, President Obama has set himself up for more success should he be reelected, because the economy has been showing signs of faster improvement recently: housing starts up 35% year over year; robust seasonal job growth; stock market continuing to gain; auto sales up; and only modest inflation.

    If per chance Romney is elected (perish the thought), he will have been set up for success by the Obama policies. However, if Romney is elected (perish the thought), the tax policies he says he will put in place will recreate the problems generated by the Bush administration (negative GDP, job losses, and increased deficit), thus reversing our recovery to date, creating ever more serious problems for the 98%, including those 47% of whom Romney said behind closed doors that he does not care!

  7. If per chance Romney is elected (perish the thought), he will have been set up for success by the Obama policies. However, if Romney is elected (perish the thought), the tax policies he says he will put in place will recreate the problems generated by the Bush administration (negative GDP, job losses, and increased deficit), thus reversing our recovery to date, creating ever more serious problems for the 98%, including those 47% of whom Romney said behind closed doors that he does not care!

    If only we could bring back the Bush economy, with unemployment at 5-6% and deficits less than half of what they are today.

  8. As the devestating doom of Obama’s impending rejection in November becomes ever more undeniably self-evident, and the attendant nationwide negative impact it will of course visit on nearly all other Democrat candidates, continues to penetrate the once warm and cozy blanket of denial, deception, and delusion which usually surrounds, penetrates, and protects leftists from the harsh headwinds of reality proves woefully inadequate, white-hot anger is replacing smug arrogance among the no-longer faithful.

    Here’s an excerpt from Ron Ross writing for The American Spectator 10/18/12. (emphasis added)

    The Democrats Rough Re-entry into Reality

    …For the past four years conservatives have been asking themselves, “Why can’t more people see what a fraud this guy is?” That may be an impossible question to answer, but the population of those who see him for who and what he is seems to be growing.

    One of the things that makes Hans Christian Andersen’s “The Emperor’s New Clothes” such an enduring parable is how it is both absurd and painfully true. The emperor was naked, but no one wanted to be the first to admit it. A kind of mass hysteria affected the citizens. Once a child spoke the obvious truth, the delusion was shattered. If there were not a lot of truth about human nature reflected in the story, it wouldn’t be such a classic.

    Obama’s nakedness is not physical but rather intellectual. Time magazine’s Joe Klein said recently, “Anyone who says Barack Obama is not intelligent is either crazy or bigoted.” What makes Klein so certain that Obama is intelligent? The evidence is all in the opposite direction. Forrest Gump famously said, “Stupid is as stupid does.” The corollary is also true. Smart is as smart does. Was choosing Joe Biden as someone to be a heartbeat away from the presidency a smart decision? If you think so, you need to watch the video of last week’s vice-presidential debate.

    Another reality that may be penetrating the liberals’ self-delusion shield is the Benghazi debacle. It’s been said that a liberal is someone who will not take his own side in a fight. A perfect example of that perverse attitude is how Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Susan Rice were all so eager to take the terrorists’ side in the attacks on our embassies. They used the strongest possible words in condemning the obscure video and its creator. Ms. Clinton said the video was “disgusting and reprehensible” and “truly abhorrent.” By blaming the video so vehemently they effectively implied the attackers were justified. They took the terrorists’ side in the fight. They basically said, “We totally understand why you wanted to kill our ambassador. You don’t like America; neither do we.”

    Democrats ridiculed Clint Eastwood for his empty chair speech at the Republican National Convention. In retrospect his metaphor appears to have been spot-on. Eastwood later observed that “Obama is the biggest hoax ever committed on the American people.”

    Even if some Democrats are seeing the hollow reality of Barack Obama for the first time, it’s unlikely to affect their overall mind-set. When a liberal has a choice between fantasy and reality, he will choose fantasy every time. There’s no reason to think that will change anytime soon.

    Beyond the specific reality of Barack Obama, the Democrats’ fundamental problem is their adherence to liberalism. Obama is a glaring manifestation of liberalism. If he fails to win reelection, Democrats will blame him. They will do everything in their power to deny where the real blame truly belongs.

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