From The Washington Examiner:
Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss
byConn Carroll Senior Editorial Writer
Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.
Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.
The Gallup original is actually the better story, but I used the Examiner as the article lead-in because it has the better map. But it has to be remembered: the Gallup story concerns President Obama’s job approval numbers, and not a potential match-up with any particular Republican candidate. If Mr Obama can somehow turn the 2012 election into a referendum on the Republican nominee, rather than on his own job performance as President, it’s possible that he could be re-elected; if the election is a referendum on the President’s job performance, as seen by the American people, he will lose.