The Florida Republican Presidential Primary: Mitt Romney wins big.

As was expected:

Mitt Romney to win Florida primary, CBS News projects

ByBrian Montopoli
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney waves during his victory celebration after winning the Florida primary election Tuesday Jan. 31, 2012, in Tampa, Fla. Updated: 8:48 p.m. ET

Mitt Romney will defeat Newt Gingrich decisively in the Florida Republican primary, CBS News is projecting, in a victory that reestablishes the former Massachusetts governor as the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.

“I stand ready to lead this party and to lead our nation,” Romney told cheering supporters in Tampa after his victory became clear.

With more than 5,000 of 6,796 precincts reporting, Romney had 47 percent of the vote, followed by 32 percent for Gingrich, 13 percent for Rick Santorum and 7 percent for Ron Paul.

More at the link.

If Governor Romney winds up winning the 47% he is projected to capture, that will mean he has done better than the pre-election polls projected; most of the polls had him winning around 42% of the vote. This could be part of the reason why; from Ed Morrissey:

Gallup: Romney edges Obama in swing states

posted at 10:25 am on January 30, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Mitt Romney edges Barack Obama among registered voters in swing states, according to a new Gallup/USA Today pollBy “edge,” I mean barely edges — by a single point.  Even with that, though, Romney fares far better than his competitors in the same polling:

Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney essentially ties Barack Obama in the nation’s key battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States survey finds, while rival Newt Gingrich now trails the president by a decisive 14 percentage points.

That reflects a significant decline by the former House speaker since early December, when he led Obama by three points. …

In a head-to-head race, Romney leads Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 48%-47%, the survey finds.

But Obama leads Gingrich, 54%-40%. The president’s standing against him has risen nine points since early December; Gingrich has fallen by eight.

Gingrich fares less well than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who trails Obama by seven points, 50%-43%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who also trails by seven points, 51%-44%.

As I’ve written before, this is a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison.  While the GOP continues its primary slugfest, it’s natural to have some voters refuse to back primary candidates against Obama as a form of principle protest, at least for the moment.  Democrats are united behind Barack Obama and have no such reservations.

The key to this poll is the fact that Obama as incumbent falls below 50%, especially in a poll of registered rather than likely voters, regardless of which head-to-head matchup it appears.  That’s a soft re-elect number — not fatal to re-election at that level, but a problem that could grow after the Republicans actually pick their nominee.  Since likely voter samples tend to produce less favorable results for Democrats, that problem is probably worse than it seems at the moment.

Gingrich still has a problem, though.  Even though he has regained his top-tier status in the Republican primary, he seems to have alienated a lot of voters to have a 17-point swing in the gap over just six or seven weeks.  Given the tone of the campaign and especially Gingrich’s angry attacks over the past week, that may not be a big surprise.  What might play well with the Tea Party base won’t play well in a general election, and the polling results of the last few days indicates that it doesn’t play well with the Tea Party base, either.

More at the link.

It could be a bit simpler than Mr Gingrich’s style turning off some voters; after all, Mr Romney’s campaign in Florida hasn’t exactly been all sweetness and light. It could be that there was a significant number of Republican voters in Florida who were looking at the candidates and finally asked themselves: which one of these men can beat Barack Obama?

That has been a major theme of the Romney campaign all along, that he is the candidate who can defeat the President in November. Naturally, all of the candidates claim that they can, but the conventional wisdom is that Mr Romney has the best chance of that. The conventional wisdom has been wrong before, but something doesn’t get to be the conventional wisdom unless a lot of people accept it as true.

As it happens, one of my sisters lives in Orlando, and she’s been asking me for whom I thought she should vote. She told me that she’d be voting early in the day, but I don’t know for whom she voted.


  1. I fear his “win” has come with a price of it obtained by a scorched earth policy against Gingrich. What does Romney stand for, other than his own Ego now? I had a lot of respect for Romney for turning Massachusetts around, and walking into a fiasco called the Salt Lake Olympics and making it run smooth. I know a President needs to be ruthless while in office, but is usually hidden from view and emerges on occasions, but a take no prisoners, ruthless, gutter politics is what has emerged for all to see.

    The 2012 elections should have been easy for the Republicans if the whole of the Party and fringes worked together. But this has turned into an ugly battle between the Establishment that at times looks like a subset of the Super Party that includes the Establishments of Democrats and Republicans which produces about a dime’s worth of difference between the subsets. All newcomers and reformers are unwanted and not welcome. I wonder how Romney will sleep tonight after buying Florida.

  2. Yorkshire wrote:

    I wonder how Romney will sleep tonight after buying Florida.

    Better than Newt Gingrich, I would guess. I remember a line by Tom Skerritt in the movie Top Gun: “Gentlemen, this school is about combat; there are no points for second place.”

    Hillary Clinton unleashed some rather scating attacks against Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries, including the theme that he simply was not fit to become President — an attack which has proved to be correct — but he still won. The Obama campaign was no kinder to Mrs Clinton than her campaign had been to him.

    We all wish that the presidential campaign could be run more politely, but that’s simply not how our campaigns have evolved. Negative campaigning is practiced because it has been shown to work; we have the campaigns the American people have shown they are willing to buy, so we cannot blame anyone but ourselves.

    And we can count on an extremely negative campaign in the general election. Presidential campaigns with an incumbent running for re-election are always about the incumbent’s record, and President Obama has a lousy record. The Republican nominee will be campaigning to replace the President by pointing out how poorly the President has done in his job, while the President, being mostly unable to run on his record, will be campaigning by trying to tear down the Republican nominee.

  3. In SW Florida, Romney’s campaign swamped Newt’s efforts. As an example, I got about a dozen Romney robo calls in contrast to only one from Newt’s SuperPac.

    Newt simply wasn’t competitive. He lost big because he couldn’t match Romney’s resources. When the GOP establishment turns their back they also cut the credit line. Newt’s pissing against an incoming tide and he’s about to be caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.

    I registered GOP (was an Independent) in anticipation of a close primary election, ended up with a protest vote for Rick Santorum, but will support the Republican candidate. Truth is I’d vote for Beelzebub over the Obomination and never look back.

Comments are closed.